Definitions

The reading

Market sentiment

Also: narrative sentiment

The share of directional coverage that argued an asset higher, over the seven publication days behind an edition. The unit counted is an article–asset pair; pairs that take no side are excluded from the share and reported separately. Below twenty directional pairs an asset has no reading. For the bond, “higher” means its price, so its yield lower.

This is the number every claim on the site is built on. It is a share of directions, not an average of tone.

Took a side

Also: directional

An article–asset pair took a side when the article argued the asset higher or lower. A pair that reports without arguing a direction took no side: it is held out of the reading’s denominator and reported separately.

Arguments

Narrative

Also: argument

An argument that financial coverage keeps making about an asset — the reason it gives for why the asset should rise, or why it should fall.

The site also calls a narrative an argument, as in “Largest bullish argument”. They are one thing.

Share of coverage

Also: volume share

A narrative’s share of its asset’s narrative coverage, weighted to the last three days (today 7×, yesterday 5×, the day before 4×), with older coverage carrying a small residual weight so the tail still contributes.

The denominator is the narrative’s own asset’s coverage, not all coverage — so a narrative running through several assets is sized against the one it is filed under.

Lifecycle

Lifecycle

Where an argument is in its life: Emerging, Accelerating, Saturated, Fading or Stable. The first four describe an argument that is growing, large or shrinking; Stable is one that is not moving enough, or not covered enough, to show a trend.

Most arguments are Stable at any moment. Stable means the movement was not large enough to classify, not that nothing is happening.

Emerging

An argument below 3% of its asset’s narrative coverage whose share rose more than three share points against the prior three days; or one first seen within fourteen days, with few matched articles, that is growing.

Usually small and rising. Accelerating is a rise from a share that is already large; a new argument that is rising is Emerging whatever its share.

Accelerating

An argument at or above 3% of its asset’s narrative coverage whose share rose more than three share points against the prior three days — unless it is new, which makes it Emerging.

Saturated

An argument at or above 3% of its asset’s narrative coverage whose share moved no more than three share points in either direction — unless it is new and rising, which makes it Emerging.

Large and flat. It describes how much of the conversation the argument holds, and says nothing about what the price has done.

Fading

An argument whose share of its asset’s narrative coverage fell by more than three share points against the prior three days — while it still has enough coverage in the window to show a trend (with too little, it is Stable).

Stable

An argument below 3% of its asset’s narrative coverage that neither rose nor fell more than three share points against the prior three days (a new argument that rises at all is Emerging instead) — or any argument, however large its share, with too little coverage in the window to show a trend.

Usually small and flat. Most arguments are Stable most of the time; it is a quiet stage, not a missing one.

Not in recent coverage

A mark on a search result for an argument that has not matched an article in ninety days. Its page is still there and still says what it said.

This is not a lifecycle stage, although it sits beside the stage badges. It is a statement about recency, not about movement.

What we track

Market

A class of instruments — Equities, Crypto, Bonds, Metals, Commodities.

The chart groups four markets and names its commodity group Metals, because its members are gold and silver. The board names the same group Commodities, because it also holds Crude Oil, which is not a metal. Same four-way split, one group named for two different reasons.

Asset

One instrument — Bitcoin, Gold, the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury. Every reading on the site is an asset’s or a market’s, never both at once.

Ticker

An asset’s symbol — BTC for Bitcoin, SPX for the S&P 500, US10Y for the 10-year Treasury. Tickers appear on cards and filters where the full name would not fit.

Theme

A debate that runs through several markets at once, measured over thirty days and recomputed monthly.

A theme runs on a different clock from everything else on the site: its figures are the month’s, while each market’s reading beside it is that market’s own, this week.

Edition

One night’s publication. An edition dated the 22nd covers articles published on the 15th through the 21st, and every page states the date its data describes.

Since yesterday

The day-over-day move in a market’s reading, and a change in which argument leads a side. A market is named when its reading moved ten points or more; otherwise the line names the biggest move there was. A week-on-week move under about twelve points is inside the measurement’s own error.

It compares two editions the site already published. Where yesterday’s edition is missing, no comparison is shown rather than one against an older date.

Under the hood

Inputs and labels the measurement uses. The site’s pages do not show them; they are defined here for anyone checking how a reading is made.

Coverage tone

Also: sentiment

A recency-weighted average of how coverage sounds, over five days, weighted 7, 5, 4, 3 and 2, so the latest day counts 3.5 times a four-day-old one. Scored from −1 to +1. With fewer than two scored days it is not a weighted average at all — it returns the latest score as it stands.

Tone is how coverage sounds; the reading above is what share of it took which side. They are different measurements on different scales and can disagree.

Narrative balance

The net difference between the bullish and bearish shares of an asset’s narrative coverage, over narratives active in the last seven days. Neutral narratives sit in the denominator, so the stated extremes of −100% and +100% are not reachable in practice.

Balance weighs narratives; the reading weighs article–asset pairs. Balance also carries no coverage floor, so it can be driven by very little coverage.

Coverage tension

How far an asset’s tone and its narrative balance diverge, from 0 when they agree to 2 at the extreme. Tension is computed from a single day’s tone score, not from the five-day average shown beside it.

Because its tone input is the single day and the displayed tone is the five-day average, subtracting the two numbers on the page does not reproduce this one.

Momentum

The shift in a narrative’s share of coverage over the trailing three days against the three before them, in share points. Share points rather than a percentage change, because a narrative going from 1% to 2% of coverage has doubled but moved one point, and the point is the honest size of the move.

Momentum is the change in share; share of coverage is the level. A high share with flat momentum is an argument that is large and not moving.

Own voice / Attributed

Whether an outlet makes an argument itself, or attributes it to someone else. Both are coverage of the argument; only the first is the outlet putting its own name to it.

Headline / Supporting point / Mention

How much weight an article gave an argument: its headline, a supporting point inside the piece, or a passing mention. Each quote in the coverage record carries one of the three.

Thin coverage / Not yet written up

The two reasons a narrative is held below the bar. “Thin coverage” means very few articles have matched it. “Not yet written up” means it has coverage but no analyst note yet.

They are not the same state and the marks are not interchangeable: an argument can be heavily covered and still carry no note.

Recurrence — New, Back, Steady, Occasional

An argument’s presence pattern over twelve weeks: Steady means present in at least ten of those weeks; New means first seen within the last four; Back means present now after at least two whole quiet weeks; Occasional is everything else.

Recurrence describes how often an argument has been present. A lifecycle stage describes how its share is moving now.