↗ Bullish case · Summary unavailable
No case summary was saved for this edition
The bullish narratives below show what this side of the coverage argues.
Archived · 31 July 2026
Equities · SPX
S&P 500
See how coverage of the S&P 500 is changing—and the bullish and bearish arguments behind it.
Sentiment over time
History shown
48% bullish — 48% of the articles that took a side on S&P 500 argued S&P 500 higher, articles published 24–30 July.
S&P 500 · 48% bullish. 48% of the articles that took a side on S&P 500 argued S&P 500 higher, articles published 24–30 July.
| Date | Bullish share (%) |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 38 |
| 2026-07-26 | 38 |
| 2026-07-27 | 38 |
| 2026-07-28 | 37 |
| 2026-07-29 | 31 |
| 2026-07-30 | 32 |
| 2026-07-31 | 48 |
| Date | Bullish share (%) |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | 59 |
| 2026-07-03 | 56 |
| 2026-07-04 | 64 |
| 2026-07-05 | 66 |
| 2026-07-06 | 66 |
| 2026-07-07 | 67 |
| 2026-07-08 | 55 |
| 2026-07-09 | 52 |
| 2026-07-10 | 55 |
| 2026-07-11 | 56 |
| 2026-07-12 | 54 |
| 2026-07-13 | 56 |
| 2026-07-14 | 37 |
| 2026-07-15 | 48 |
| 2026-07-16 | 66 |
| 2026-07-17 | 49 |
| 2026-07-18 | 38 |
| 2026-07-19 | 36 |
| 2026-07-20 | 34 |
| 2026-07-21 | 43 |
| 2026-07-22 | 47 |
| 2026-07-23 | 38 |
| 2026-07-24 | 37 |
| 2026-07-25 | 38 |
| 2026-07-26 | 38 |
| 2026-07-27 | 38 |
| 2026-07-28 | 37 |
| 2026-07-29 | 31 |
| 2026-07-30 | 32 |
| 2026-07-31 | 48 |
Each point measures the previous seven days of directional articles. It describes coverage, not the probability of a rise in the S&P 500’s price.Articles published from 24 to 30 July, scored the following mornings.
What mattered · 31 July 2026
After a rough week, the S&P 500 conversation flipped positive today as investors warmed to Apple's low-cost approach to AI over rivals burning cash on infrastructure.
What changed
Big Tech Driving SPX Records now leads the bullish case — was 3rd
Fed Minutes Hawkish Rate Hike Signal now leads the bearish case — was 19th
Keep up with S&P 500
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The bullish and bearish cases
↘ Bearish case · Summary unavailable
No case summary was saved for this edition
The bearish narratives below show what this side of the coverage argues.
How the S&P 500’s narratives are evolving
Start with the highlights, or explore a stage of the narrative lifecycle.
Featured
6 featured narratives · Selected highlights across the lifecycle
AI Earnings Growth Supports Equities
Share of coverage
1.8%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Strong corporate earnings growth and solid underlying economic conditions support equity valuations despite near-term volatility from geopolitical and policy risks.
S&P 500 Earnings Growth Optimism
Share of coverage
2.2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Expectations of strong future earnings will keep S&P 500 valuations in check.
SPX Earnings Infrastructure Momentum
Share of coverage
2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Focus on second-quarter earnings and infrastructure progress could sustain momentum in the equity market.
Emerging
2 emerging narratives · Gaining attention from a low base
AI Earnings Growth Supports Equities
Share of coverage
1.8%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Strong corporate earnings growth and solid underlying economic conditions support equity valuations despite near-term volatility from geopolitical and policy risks.
Fed Rate Hike Oil Pressure
Share of coverage
1.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The Fed may face pressure to raise rates in September if inflation remains elevated and crude oil prices continue surging
Accelerating
6 accelerating narratives · Already visible and gaining attention
Fading
3 fading narratives · Losing attention
Strong Earnings Driving SPX Rally
Share of coverage
1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Better-than-expected earnings reports are driving stock market gains.
Oil Prices Squeeze Indian Margins
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Elevated oil prices are a greater threat to Indian equities than global equity volatility due to inflation and margin concerns
US-Iran Tensions Impacting Rates
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
U.S.-Iran tensions could lead to rising energy prices, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
Steady
22 steady narratives · Holding a steady share of attention
S&P 500 Earnings Growth Optimism
Share of coverage
2.2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Expectations of strong future earnings will keep S&P 500 valuations in check.
SPX Earnings Infrastructure Momentum
Share of coverage
2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Focus on second-quarter earnings and infrastructure progress could sustain momentum in the equity market.
Strong Corporate Earnings Fuel Rally
Share of coverage
1.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The market's bullish sentiment is supported by strong corporate earnings and consumer spending.
Iran Geopolitical Risk Equity Impact
Share of coverage
1.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, are bearish for stock prices.
Geopolitical Oil Price Inflation Pressure
Share of coverage
1.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on stock indexes.
Global PMI Slowdown Equity Risk
Share of coverage
1.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Weak global PMI data will indicate slowing economic activity and pose risks to equity market performance
SPX-Nasdaq Performance Divergence
Share of coverage
1.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The S&P 500 is struggling to keep pace with the tech-heavy Nasdaq's rally, indicating a divergence in market performance.
US Growth AI Consumer Resilience
Share of coverage
1.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Strong consumer spending and AI infrastructure investment are supporting steady US economic growth despite geopolitical headwinds
Yardeni US Economic Resilience Thesis
Share of coverage
1.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Ed Yardeni maintains a highly optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy and stock market, expecting continued economic resilience driven by a robust labor market and steady service sector growth.
Fed Hold Stabilizes Equity Outlook
Share of coverage
1.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
A Fed hold on rates without rate cuts removes a headwind for equities rather than providing a tailwind, but is sufficient support for markets with structural domestic demand
Shipping Bottleneck Inflation Resurgence Risk
Share of coverage
1.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Geopolitical tensions and global energy supply uncertainty could impact inflation and central bank policy
Consumer Discretionary Spending Weakness Broadens
Share of coverage
0.7%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Unexpected decline in consumer confidence signals weakening economic momentum
AI Demand Boosting Tech Earnings
Share of coverage
0.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The tech sector is benefiting from strong demand for AI-related products.
Middle East Oil Supply Disruption
Share of coverage
0.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Rising crude oil prices are contributing to overall market gains.
AI Capex Eroding Tech Profitability
Share of coverage
0.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Investors are concerned that massive capital expenditures in AI could erode profitability.
Iran Conflict Market Risk Selloff
Share of coverage
0.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Middle East conflict tensions and stalled negotiations are weighing on investor sentiment and market direction
Middle East Oil Inflation Fear
Share of coverage
0.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Middle East tensions and rising oil prices are pausing the strong market rally.
Middle East Shipping Attack Escalation
Share of coverage
0.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Red Sea shipping disruptions are suppressing equity market valuations
S&P 500 Energy Sector Undervaluation
Share of coverage
0.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The S&P 500 energy sector is undervalued compared to its historical median, suggesting potential for price appreciation.
AI Equity Rally Sustainability Doubts
Share of coverage
0.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Recent earnings reports from major tech companies have raised doubts about the sustainability of the AI-led equity run.
Non-Hyperscaler AI Earnings Broadening
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Non-hyperscaler companies experiencing AI-driven business improvements and earnings surprises offer better investment opportunities than hyperscalers
Treasury Yield Decline Boosting Equities
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The decline in Treasury yields is contributing to a rise in U.S. stock futures.
32 more narratives are Quiet (0.5% or less of S&P 500’s coverage over the last seven days) and appear in the full list.
Why Quiet is common: most narratives are not written about in a given week. A narrative needs more than 0.5% of the asset’s coverage over seven days to be anything but Quiet, and at least three articles in a week to be called Emerging, Accelerating or Fading.
More on the S&P 500 and the market
Related themes
Explore the broader themes the S&P 500 is part of.
Related assets
See the narratives and sentiment around other assets.
S&P 500 history
Weekly and monthly reviews of S&P 500’s narratives and sentiment are coming; the history page will list them as they are published.