↗ Bullish case · Summary unavailable
No case summary was saved for this edition
The bullish narratives below show what this side of the coverage argues.
Archived · 18 August 2026
Equities · SPX
S&P 500
See how coverage of the S&P 500 is changing—and the bullish and bearish arguments behind it.
Sentiment over time
History shown
73% bullish — 73% of the articles that took a side on S&P 500 argued S&P 500 higher, articles published 11–17 August.
S&P 500 · 73% bullish. 73% of the articles that took a side on S&P 500 argued S&P 500 higher, articles published 11–17 August.
| Date | Bullish share (%) |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 65 |
| 2026-08-13 | 68 |
| 2026-08-14 | 79 |
| 2026-08-15 | 73 |
| 2026-08-16 | 72 |
| 2026-08-17 | 72 |
| 2026-08-18 | 73 |
| Date | Bullish share (%) |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 34 |
| 2026-07-21 | 43 |
| 2026-07-22 | 47 |
| 2026-07-23 | 38 |
| 2026-07-24 | 37 |
| 2026-07-25 | 38 |
| 2026-07-26 | 38 |
| 2026-07-27 | 38 |
| 2026-07-28 | 37 |
| 2026-07-29 | 31 |
| 2026-07-30 | 32 |
| 2026-07-31 | 48 |
| 2026-08-01 | 58 |
| 2026-08-02 | 60 |
| 2026-08-03 | 62 |
| 2026-08-04 | 68 |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 |
| 2026-08-06 | 84 |
| 2026-08-07 | 80 |
| 2026-08-08 | 81 |
| 2026-08-09 | 82 |
| 2026-08-10 | 81 |
| 2026-08-11 | 76 |
| 2026-08-12 | 65 |
| 2026-08-13 | 68 |
| 2026-08-14 | 79 |
| 2026-08-15 | 73 |
| 2026-08-16 | 72 |
| 2026-08-17 | 72 |
| 2026-08-18 | 73 |
Each point measures the previous seven days of directional articles. It describes coverage, not the probability of a rise in the S&P 500’s price.Articles published from 11 to 17 August, scored the following mornings.
What mattered · 18 August 2026
A sudden burst of worry about weak retail sales is cooling the S&P 500's optimistic mood from earlier this week, even as Amazon's strong results give bulls something to cheer about.
What changed
S&P 500 Corporate Earnings Momentum now leads the bullish case — new
New in the bullish case: Strong Earnings Driving SPX Rally
Stagflation Fear Hits Equities now leads the bearish case — was 9th
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The bullish and bearish cases
↘ Bearish case · Summary unavailable
No case summary was saved for this edition
The bearish narratives below show what this side of the coverage argues.
How the S&P 500’s narratives are evolving
Start with the highlights, or explore a stage of the narrative lifecycle.
Featured
6 featured narratives · Selected highlights across the lifecycle
Stagflation Fear Hits Equities
Share of coverage
7.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
A hot inflation print combined with weak jobs data could trigger stagflation fears and send stock prices lower.
Retail Sales Consumer Spending Slowdown
Share of coverage
3.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Weak retail sales data could signal consumer spending slowdown and pressure equity markets
AI Earnings Growth Supports Equities
Share of coverage
4.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Strong corporate earnings growth and solid underlying economic conditions support equity valuations despite near-term volatility from geopolitical and policy risks.
AI Capex Eroding Tech Profitability
Share of coverage
2.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Investors are concerned that massive capital expenditures in AI could erode profitability.
Emerging
6 emerging narratives · Gaining attention from a low base
Stagflation Fear Hits Equities
Share of coverage
7.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
A hot inflation print combined with weak jobs data could trigger stagflation fears and send stock prices lower.
Retail Sales Consumer Spending Slowdown
Share of coverage
3.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Weak retail sales data could signal consumer spending slowdown and pressure equity markets
Fed Guidance Vacuum Market Sensitivity
Share of coverage
1.2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The Fed's reduced forward guidance and sparse communication style is forcing investors to scrutinize every word, making markets more sensitive to macro data and less reliant on verbal reassurance about interest rate paths.
AI Selloff Broad Market Contagion
Share of coverage
0.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Broad market selloff in July impacted both AI-focused and non-AI equity positions, with losses spread across multiple sectors and geographies
Inflation In-Line Supports Equities
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
U.S. equity indices are positioned for modest gains as inflation data comes in line with expectations, supporting a stable economic backdrop for equities.
PPI Disinflation Boosts Equity Rally
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Disinflation signals from favorable PPI data will support equity prices by reducing Fed rate hike expectations
Accelerating
13 accelerating narratives · Already visible and gaining attention
Fading
6 fading narratives · Losing attention
Strong Earnings Driving SPX Rally
Share of coverage
2.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Better-than-expected earnings reports are driving stock market gains.
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Rally
Share of coverage
1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Diplomatic efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz are easing market fears, providing support to the S&P 500.
Iran Peace Talks Market Optimism
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The potential negotiations between Iran and the U.S. to end the Middle East conflict are improving market sentiment.
Oil Price Drop Eases Inflation
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The drop in oil prices is easing inflation fears, leading to a rally in Asian and U.S. stock markets.
S&P 500 Tech-Led Record Rally
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Broad market indices are poised for gains as tech sector strength drives overall market sentiment
Treasury Yield Decline Boosting Equities
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The decline in Treasury yields is contributing to a rise in U.S. stock futures.
Steady
7 steady narratives · Holding a steady share of attention
AI Earnings Growth Supports Equities
Share of coverage
4.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Strong corporate earnings growth and solid underlying economic conditions support equity valuations despite near-term volatility from geopolitical and policy risks.
AI Capex Eroding Tech Profitability
Share of coverage
2.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Investors are concerned that massive capital expenditures in AI could erode profitability.
AWS AI Revenue Validation
Share of coverage
1.8%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Amazon's strong AWS revenue growth and sustained AI infrastructure spending will generate sufficient returns and support the broader megacap technology rally
S&P 500 Earnings Growth Optimism
Share of coverage
1.8%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Expectations of strong future earnings will keep S&P 500 valuations in check.
Big Tech Driving SPX Records
Share of coverage
1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The strong performances of major tech stocks are driving the S&P 500 index higher.
Middle East Oil Supply Disruption
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Rising crude oil prices are contributing to overall market gains.
SPX Earnings Infrastructure Momentum
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Focus on second-quarter earnings and infrastructure progress could sustain momentum in the equity market.
23 more narratives are Quiet (0.5% or less of S&P 500’s coverage over the last seven days) and appear in the full list.
Why Quiet is common: most narratives are not written about in a given week. A narrative needs more than 0.5% of the asset’s coverage over seven days to be anything but Quiet, and at least three articles in a week to be called Emerging, Accelerating or Fading.
More on the S&P 500 and the market
Related themes
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Related assets
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S&P 500 history
Weekly and monthly reviews of S&P 500’s narratives and sentiment are coming; the history page will list them as they are published.