Archived · 25 August 2026

Equities · SPX

S&P 500

See how coverage of the S&P 500 is changing—and the bullish and bearish arguments behind it.

Updated 25 August 2026

Coverage: 18–24 August 2026

Sentiment over time

History shown

27% bullish — 27% of the articles that took a side on S&P 500 argued S&P 500 higher, articles published 18–24 August.

Of articles taking a side · published 18–24 August

As of 25 August 2026

0–100% bullish · 19 Aug — 25 Aug 2026. From 65% on 19 Aug to 27% on 25 Aug; low 27% on 25 Aug, high 65% on 19 Aug.

S&P 500 narrative sentiment, the 7 days to 25 Aug 2026: the share of articles taking a side that were bullish, each day a 7-day reading. Days without a reading are not listed.
Date	Bullish share (%)
2026-08-19	65
2026-08-20	56
2026-08-21	39
2026-08-22	36
2026-08-23	36
2026-08-24	35
2026-08-25	27

0–100% bullish · 27 Jul — 25 Aug 2026. From 38% on 27 Jul to 27% on 25 Aug; low 27% on 25 Aug, high 84% on 6 Aug.

S&P 500 narrative sentiment, the 30 days to 25 Aug 2026: the share of articles taking a side that were bullish, each day a 7-day reading. Days without a reading are not listed.
Date	Bullish share (%)
2026-07-27	38
2026-07-28	37
2026-07-29	31
2026-07-30	32
2026-07-31	48
2026-08-01	58
2026-08-02	60
2026-08-03	62
2026-08-04	68
2026-08-05	74
2026-08-06	84
2026-08-07	80
2026-08-08	81
2026-08-09	82
2026-08-10	81
2026-08-11	76
2026-08-12	65
2026-08-13	68
2026-08-14	79
2026-08-15	73
2026-08-16	72
2026-08-17	72
2026-08-18	73
2026-08-19	65
2026-08-20	56
2026-08-21	39
2026-08-22	36
2026-08-23	36
2026-08-24	35
2026-08-25	27

How this is measured

Each point measures the previous seven days of directional articles. It describes coverage, not the probability of a rise in the S&P 500’s price.Articles published from 18 to 24 August, scored the following mornings.

What mattered · 25 August 2026

Bond yields are back in the driver's seat for the S&P 500, drowning out the usual optimism about strong company earnings.

What changed

AI Earnings Growth Supports Equities now leads the bullish case — new

New in the bearish case: US-Iran Tensions Impacting Rates

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The bullish and bearish cases

↗ Bullish case · Summary unavailable

No case summary was saved for this edition

The bullish narratives below show what this side of the coverage argues.

↘ Bearish case · Summary unavailable

No case summary was saved for this edition

The bearish narratives below show what this side of the coverage argues.

How the S&P 500’s narratives are evolving

Start with the highlights, or explore a stage of the narrative lifecycle.

Featured

6 featured narratives · Selected highlights across the lifecycle

Steady attention
AI Earnings Growth Supports Equities
Share of coverage
6.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Strong corporate earnings growth and solid underlying economic conditions support equity valuations despite near-term volatility from geopolitical and policy risks.
Read the narrative — AI Earnings Growth Supports Equities
Accelerating attention
Rising Bond Yields Pressure Stocks
Share of coverage
15.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Rising bond yields are currently pressuring the stock market.
Read the narrative — Rising Bond Yields Pressure Stocks
Accelerating attention
US-Iran Tensions Impacting Rates
Share of coverage
3.2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
U.S.-Iran tensions could lead to rising energy prices, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
Read the narrative — US-Iran Tensions Impacting Rates
Emerging attention
10Y Yield 5% Equity Threat
Share of coverage
5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
A break above 5% in the 10-year Treasury yield represents an obvious trigger point that would shake equity valuations and trigger near-term stock market risk.
Read the narrative — 10Y Yield 5% Equity Threat
Fading attention
Big Tech Driving SPX Records
Share of coverage
2.7%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The strong performances of major tech stocks are driving the S&P 500 index higher.
Read the narrative — Big Tech Driving SPX Records
Accelerating attention
Rising Yields Pressure Tech Stocks
Share of coverage
2.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Rising Treasury yields have negatively impacted high-flying tech stocks.
Read the narrative — Rising Yields Pressure Tech Stocks

Emerging

2 emerging narratives · Gaining attention from a low base

Emerging attention
10Y Yield 5% Equity Threat
Share of coverage
5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
A break above 5% in the 10-year Treasury yield represents an obvious trigger point that would shake equity valuations and trigger near-term stock market risk.
Read the narrative — 10Y Yield 5% Equity Threat
Emerging attention
Cancer Vaccine Trial Boosts Healthcare
Share of coverage
0.9%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Healthcare sector strength, particularly from positive clinical trial data in cancer treatments, is supporting broader market recovery.
Read the narrative — Cancer Vaccine Trial Boosts Healthcare

Accelerating

11 accelerating narratives · Already visible and gaining attention

Accelerating attention
Rising Bond Yields Pressure Stocks
Share of coverage
15.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Rising bond yields are currently pressuring the stock market.
Read the narrative — Rising Bond Yields Pressure Stocks
Accelerating attention
US-Iran Tensions Impacting Rates
Share of coverage
3.2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
U.S.-Iran tensions could lead to rising energy prices, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
Read the narrative — US-Iran Tensions Impacting Rates
Accelerating attention
Rising Yields Pressure Tech Stocks
Share of coverage
2.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Rising Treasury yields have negatively impacted high-flying tech stocks.
Read the narrative — Rising Yields Pressure Tech Stocks
Accelerating attention
Large-Cap Growth Style Outperformance
Share of coverage
1.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Large-cap growth stocks are outperforming other stock styles significantly.
Read the narrative — Large-Cap Growth Style Outperformance
Accelerating attention
Bond Yield Sector Rotation Rally
Share of coverage
0.9%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Higher bond yields provide justification for rotation out of defensives and secular growth.
Read the narrative — Bond Yield Sector Rotation Rally
Accelerating attention
S&P 500 Overvaluation Correction Risk
Share of coverage
0.9%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The stock market may be overvalued and vulnerable to a significant correction.
Read the narrative — S&P 500 Overvaluation Correction Risk
Accelerating attention
AI Trade Sentiment Deterioration
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The market is beginning to doubt the AI trade, leading to increased selling pressure on AI-related stocks.
Read the narrative — AI Trade Sentiment Deterioration
Accelerating attention
Inflation Squeezing Consumer Spending Power
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Stubbornly high inflation and rising fuel costs are pressuring household budgets and consumer spending, which could constrain economic growth
Read the narrative — Inflation Squeezing Consumer Spending Power
Accelerating attention
Oil Prices Squeeze Indian Margins
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Elevated oil prices are a greater threat to Indian equities than global equity volatility due to inflation and margin concerns
Read the narrative — Oil Prices Squeeze Indian Margins
Accelerating attention
S&P 500 Earnings Beat Rate
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The generally favorable Q1 earnings season is winding down with a high percentage of companies beating estimates.
Read the narrative — S&P 500 Earnings Beat Rate
Accelerating attention
Treasury Yield Decline Boosting Equities
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The decline in Treasury yields is contributing to a rise in U.S. stock futures.
Read the narrative — Treasury Yield Decline Boosting Equities

Fading

6 fading narratives · Losing attention

Fading attention
Big Tech Driving SPX Records
Share of coverage
2.7%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The strong performances of major tech stocks are driving the S&P 500 index higher.
Read the narrative — Big Tech Driving SPX Records
Fading attention
S&P 500 Earnings Growth Optimism
Share of coverage
1.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Expectations of strong future earnings will keep S&P 500 valuations in check.
Read the narrative — S&P 500 Earnings Growth Optimism
Fading attention
Cool Inflation Data Boosts Equities
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Cool inflation data supports continued strength in equity markets
Read the narrative — Cool Inflation Data Boosts Equities
Fading attention
Fed Rate Cut Inflation Easing
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Easing inflation data may lead the Fed to cut interest rates this year.
Read the narrative — Fed Rate Cut Inflation Easing
Fading attention
Retail Sales Consumer Spending Slowdown
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Weak retail sales data could signal consumer spending slowdown and pressure equity markets
Read the narrative — Retail Sales Consumer Spending Slowdown
Fading attention
Shipping Bottleneck Inflation Resurgence Risk
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Geopolitical tensions and global energy supply uncertainty could impact inflation and central bank policy
Read the narrative — Shipping Bottleneck Inflation Resurgence Risk

Steady

15 steady narratives · Holding a steady share of attention

Steady attention
AI Earnings Growth Supports Equities
Share of coverage
6.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Strong corporate earnings growth and solid underlying economic conditions support equity valuations despite near-term volatility from geopolitical and policy risks.
Read the narrative — AI Earnings Growth Supports Equities
Steady attention
AI Capex Eroding Tech Profitability
Share of coverage
1.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Investors are concerned that massive capital expenditures in AI could erode profitability.
Read the narrative — AI Capex Eroding Tech Profitability
Steady attention
AI Bubble Overvaluation Risk
Share of coverage
0.9%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The current AI bubble may be larger than the tech bubble of the 1990s, indicating potential overvaluation in the S&P 500.
Read the narrative — AI Bubble Overvaluation Risk
Steady attention
AWS AI Revenue Validation
Share of coverage
0.9%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Amazon's strong AWS revenue growth and sustained AI infrastructure spending will generate sufficient returns and support the broader megacap technology rally
Read the narrative — AWS AI Revenue Validation
Steady attention
Iran Geopolitical Risk Equity Impact
Share of coverage
0.9%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, are bearish for stock prices.
Read the narrative — Iran Geopolitical Risk Equity Impact
Steady attention
AI Capex ROI Uncertainty
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Investor uncertainty about whether massive AI capex spending by technology firms will generate adequate returns is creating volatility and selling pressure in AI-linked stocks.
Read the narrative — AI Capex ROI Uncertainty
Steady attention
AI Demand Boosting Tech Earnings
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The tech sector is benefiting from strong demand for AI-related products.
Read the narrative — AI Demand Boosting Tech Earnings
Steady attention
AI Selloff Broad Market Contagion
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Broad market selloff in July impacted both AI-focused and non-AI equity positions, with losses spread across multiple sectors and geographies
Read the narrative — AI Selloff Broad Market Contagion
Steady attention
Geopolitical Oil Price Inflation Pressure
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on stock indexes.
Read the narrative — Geopolitical Oil Price Inflation Pressure
Steady attention
Iran Conflict Market Risk Selloff
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Middle East conflict tensions and stalled negotiations are weighing on investor sentiment and market direction
Read the narrative — Iran Conflict Market Risk Selloff
Steady attention
Middle East Oil Supply Disruption
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Rising crude oil prices are contributing to overall market gains.
Read the narrative — Middle East Oil Supply Disruption
Steady attention
S&P 500 AI Strategy Underdelivery
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Poor execution of AI strategy announcements with vague promises and weak governance oversight causes S&P 500 companies to underperform their sector benchmarks
Read the narrative — S&P 500 AI Strategy Underdelivery
Steady attention
SPX Earnings Infrastructure Momentum
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Focus on second-quarter earnings and infrastructure progress could sustain momentum in the equity market.
Read the narrative — SPX Earnings Infrastructure Momentum
Steady attention
Strong Earnings Driving SPX Rally
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Better-than-expected earnings reports are driving stock market gains.
Read the narrative — Strong Earnings Driving SPX Rally
Steady attention
Wall Street Spillover to Asia
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Wall Street strength is driving positive momentum in Asian equity markets
Read the narrative — Wall Street Spillover to Asia

12 more narratives are Quiet (0.5% or less of S&P 500’s coverage over the last seven days) and appear in the full list.

Why Quiet is common: most narratives are not written about in a given week. A narrative needs more than 0.5% of the asset’s coverage over seven days to be anything but Quiet, and at least three articles in a week to be called Emerging, Accelerating or Fading.

All 46 S&P 500 narratives

Sentiment over time

What mattered · 25 August 2026

What changed

Keep up with S&P 500

The bullish and bearish cases

No case summary was saved for this edition

No case summary was saved for this edition

How the S&P 500’s narratives are evolving

Featured

Emerging

Accelerating

Fading

Steady

More on the S&P 500 and the market

Related themes

Related assets

S&P 500 history