Bearish for the S&P 500
AI Capex Earnings Bubble Burst
Steady
Holding a steady share of S&P 500 coverage.
Judged on the 7-day share of S&P 500 coverage to 21 October
Updated 21 October 2026
The bearish argument: Some analysts are warning that AI capital expenditure spending growth will not be sufficient to sustain S&P 500 earnings momentum beyond 2024, as the contribution from AI investment begins to fade, noting that capex is recognized immediately as revenue by recipient companies but is depreciated over years by companies making the investment.
What changed?
1.9% → 1.7% of S&P 500 coverage · still the 3rd-largest bearish argument (rolling 3-day share, 20 Oct → 21 Oct)
The idea itself is not new: its rolling 3-day share of coverage reached 3.3% on 21 September. Renewed coverage does not necessarily mean new evidence.
How attention has changed
1.7% of S&P 500 coverage
Rolling 3-day share · as of 21 Oct 2026
This measures attention in published coverage, not the likelihood of a price move.
| Date | Share of coverage |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 1.4% |
| 2026-09-23 | 0% |
| 2026-09-24 | 0% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0% |
| 2026-09-26 | 0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 0% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0% |
| 2026-09-29 | 1% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0% |
| 2026-10-03 | 0% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| 2026-10-07 | 0% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0% |
| 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0.5% |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.6% |
| 2026-10-12 | 0.8% |
| 2026-10-13 | 0% |
| 2026-10-14 | 0% |
| 2026-10-15 | 0% |
| 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| 2026-10-17 | 0% |
| 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| 2026-10-19 | 0% |
| 2026-10-20 | 1.9% |
| 2026-10-21 | 1.7% |
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The argument and its evidence
Several outlets can carry the same argument; no single article is its origin. Read each one in its own context.
All articles matched to this narrative
Recent coverage
-
Fortune · Published 20 Oct 2026
Stocks sell off globally as crisis grips France and Saudi Arabia cancels ‘Davos in the Desert’
In coverage record: 21 Oct 2026
“capex is recognized immediately as revenue by the companies that receive it but is depreciated over years by the companies that spend it... this phenomenon is boosting profits for the S&P 500 by 9% in 2026, though it may start to become an earnings headwind as the depreciation costs build into 2028”
Read article -
CNBC · Published 19 Oct 2026
Goldman says play defense with these stocks if you're worried about the AI bull failing
In coverage record: 20 Oct 2026
“Goldman estimates AI capital spending currently contributes about half of S & P 500 earnings growth, but expects that to diminish as spending growth slows”
Read article
Earlier coverage
-
Seeking Alpha · Published 9 Oct 2026
Depreciation Subtleties: S&P Earnings Are Vastly Overstated
In coverage record: 10 Oct 2026
“As the full expense starts to be recognized, earnings will look far weaker than the market is pricing in”
Read article -
Morningstar · Published 28 Sep 2026
Markets Brief: Are We in an Earnings Bubble?
In coverage record: 29 Sep 2026
“While there are indeed factors contributing to 'overearning' today, our base case is for S&P 500 earnings growth to decelerate, not collapse, in coming years”
Read article -
Business Insider · Published 19 Sep 2026
AI Capex Boom Masks an Uncomfortable Truth About S&P 500 Earnings: Goldman
In coverage record: 20 Sep 2026
“The AI investment boom has accounted for nearly half of S&P 500 earnings growth this year, and this tailwind should begin to fade next year even as capex spending continues to grow”
Read article