BIP-110 Miner Support Deficit

"The 55% voluntary threshold was missed by a wide margin with only 51 of 2,016 blocks signaling support at 2.53%. The BIP-110 enforcing branch stalled at block 961,633 after producing only two blocks while Bitcoin's non-enforcing chain had already reached 961,731, putting it 98 blocks ahead."

"With only 2.6% miner signaling, BIP-110 has failed to earn broad miner support. BIP-110 will then stall or fork into irrelevance while Bitcoin continues normally."

""The BIP-110 branch has rapidly fallen behind the main Bitcoin network, and it is currently struggling to produce blocks. At press time, the standard Bitcoin chain had reached block 961,681, while a BIP-110-enforcing node was sitting at block 961,633, according to the monitoring data. That put the BIP-110 branch 48 blocks behind the standard chain.""

"The proposal entered the signaling phase at around 19:35 UTC on Saturday, with support from miners seldom exceeding 2.5%, a long way short of the 55% mark required. Prominent Bitcoin voices such as Strategy chairman Michael Saylor and Blockstream CEO Adam Back have also voiced their opposition to the proposal."

"The episode may still be valuable as a signal of how powerfully miner alignment is required for soft-fork style proposals that rely on version-bit signaling and enforcement behavior."

"BIP-110 requires 1,109 signaling blocks in a 2,016-block period to meet its 55% threshold. Even if every one of those 185 remaining blocks signaled, the period would finish at 233 of 2,016, or about 11.56%."

"BIP110 is NOT inevitable. It CAN fail... 0.6% of blocks over the past 60 days have signaled support for BIP110... I give BIP110's success less than a 5% chance of actually succeeding… and I consider that generous."

"BIP-110 cannot reach voluntary lock-in. The proposal needs 1,109 signaling blocks within one 2,016-block difficulty period to lock in voluntarily. Even if every remaining block in the current period signals, the total could reach only 936. Saylor therefore said the threshold was 'mathematically unreachable' and argued that the observed count was 'not miner consensus.'"

"Miner signaling has never risen above about 1% in any period and stands at zero in the current one, with no major mining pool behind it. Among the nodes that store and relay the chain, adoption sits in the low single digits, carried almost entirely by Bitcoin Knots."

"BIP-110 has so far failed to gain consensus across major interest groups within Bitcoin; neither developers, investors, miners, nor large economic nodes support the consensus change. Less than one percent of the blocks mined in the current difficulty adjustment period are signaling for BIP110."