Bitcoin Bear Market Capitulation Phase
A new phase of capitulation may be needed to preserve historical bear-market patterns, potentially pushing Bitcoin prices lower.
Too little corroboration in the last 3 days to call a trend (12 articles). Watching for it to gain traction.
Still mostly niche and specialist coverage — not yet picked up broadly by mainstream press.
"VanEck considers a drawdown greater than 35% a capitulation signal. Bitcoin's current decline of roughly 49% therefore qualifies, although it is still considerably smaller than some of the cryptocurrency's previous bear-market losses... Earlier Bitcoin cycles included peak-to-trough declines of 94%, 85%, 84% and 78%."
"In previous cycles, LTH aNUPL fell into much deeper, more prolonged negative readings before a true low was in — a level of losses some describe as 'depression territory.' Today's numbers haven't reached that extreme. The report added that Bitcoin could still need one more capitulation leg to push long-term holder losses to historical extremes."
"Bitcoin may be going through its first institutional bear market, one in which Wall Street distributes losses efficiently enough to keep any single failure from defining the entire decline. The crash moved to the redemption desk."
"On-chain analyst Ardi noted that Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio stood at 1.21. The level remains well above the 0.69 and 0.75 readings associated with the 2018 and 2022 bear-market lows, respectively. That comparison suggests Bitcoin has not reached the same degree of market-wide capitulation seen at previous cycle bottoms."
"Rekt Capital suggested that 'there tends to be a Black Swan event in the second half of Bitcoin Bear Markets,' presenting it as a pattern-based lesson rather than a specific forecast of timing or magnitude."
"The ETF data partly supports Galaxy’s cautious stance. Thorn’s report argues that several historical capitulation signals remain absent, including the widespread investor losses and panic selling that often accompany major cycle bottoms."
"Given that prior cycles bottomed between 77% and 85% below their peaks, Galaxy argued that the current drawdown has yet to reach the depth that has historically marked a true bottom."
"As Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week for the first time since 2024, it may have moved closer to finding a bear market bottom—but there is not enough demand to sustain price growth, according to a new report from analytics firm CryptoQuant."
""Unlike previous months where dips were aggressively bought, the current distribution cycle means rallies are being utilized to exit the market," the analysts wrote in a note Tuesday."
""The break below the 200-week moving average provides important confirmation that markets may have entered a bear phase," Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, told Bloomberg."