Bitcoin Bear Market Capitulation Phase

"Rekt Capital suggested that 'there tends to be a Black Swan event in the second half of Bitcoin Bear Markets,' presenting it as a pattern-based lesson rather than a specific forecast of timing or magnitude."

"Given that prior cycles bottomed between 77% and 85% below their peaks, Galaxy argued that the current drawdown has yet to reach the depth that has historically marked a true bottom."

"The ETF data partly supports Galaxy’s cautious stance. Thorn’s report argues that several historical capitulation signals remain absent, including the widespread investor losses and panic selling that often accompany major cycle bottoms."

"As Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week for the first time since 2024, it may have moved closer to finding a bear market bottom—but there is not enough demand to sustain price growth, according to a new report from analytics firm CryptoQuant."

""The break below the 200-week moving average provides important confirmation that markets may have entered a bear phase," Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, told Bloomberg."

""Unlike previous months where dips were aggressively bought, the current distribution cycle means rallies are being utilized to exit the market," the analysts wrote in a note Tuesday."

"Cowen now believes Bitcoin has entered the third stage after recently setting a new low beneath February’s support level."

"Analysts suggest a new round of loss-making market exits may be needed to preserve historical bear-market patterns."