Bullish for the 10-year Treasury
Fed December Hike Pause Bet
Updated 21 October 2026
The bullish argument: The Fed is likely to remain on hold through December as recent inflation data shows modest progress and employment has softened, with market pricing showing an 85-87% probability of no rate change at the October meeting. This suggests the Fed may have reached its hiking cycle peak and could begin signaling a pause to markets.
How attention has changed
0% of US 10-Year Bond coverage
Rolling 3-day share · as of 21 Oct 2026
This measures attention in published coverage, not the likelihood of a price move.
| Date | Share of coverage |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 0% |
| 2026-09-23 | 0% |
| 2026-09-24 | 0% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0% |
| 2026-09-26 | 0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 0% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.3% |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.2% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0% |
| 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| 2026-10-07 | 0% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0% |
| 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0% |
| 2026-10-11 | 0% |
| 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| 2026-10-13 | 0% |
| 2026-10-14 | 0% |
| 2026-10-15 | 0% |
| 2026-10-16 | 0.6% |
| 2026-10-17 | 2.3% |
| 2026-10-18 | 2.6% |
| 2026-10-19 | 2.5% |
| 2026-10-20 | 0% |
| 2026-10-21 | 0% |
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The argument and its evidence
Several outlets can carry the same argument; no single article is its origin. Read each one in its own context.
All articles matched to this narrative
Recent coverage
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New York Post · Published 16 Oct 2026
Traders bet on October interest-rate hold after Kevin Warsh is tight-lipped at conference
In coverage record: 17 Oct 2026
“The odds of a hold at the Fed's Oct. 28 meeting jumped above 85% Friday, up from about 72% the day before, according to CME FedWatch.”
Read article -
Finbold · Published 16 Oct 2026
Prediction markets make major U-turn on Fed’s October rate decision
In coverage record: 17 Oct 2026
“the probability of a no rate change in the Fed's October decision surged to an all-time high (ATH) of 87%”
Read article -
MarketScreener · Published 16 Oct 2026
Fed's Warsh gives no hint on October policy decision
In coverage record: 17 Oct 2026
“as markets expect, hold short-term rates steady at its upcoming October 27-28 meeting”
Read article -
Moneycontrol · Published 15 Oct 2026
Top forecaster says Fed may hike rates half a point in December
In coverage record: 16 Oct 2026
“That bigger move would likely lead to a pause on more hikes early next year, Schenker anticipates”
Read article
Earlier coverage
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The Star · Published 30 Sep 2026
Ringgit ends slightly higher against Greenback on Fed rate outlook
In coverage record: 1 Oct 2026
Read article -
EUROPE SAYS · Published 7 Sep 2026
Will Federal Reserve hike rates later this month? Waller muddies the outlook
In coverage record: 8 Sep 2026
“"I'm willing to sit and wait and be patient" to see if the next inflation report also shows it declining, Waller said. "But if it reverses, then you owe it's time to pull the trigger and hike rates."”
Read article -
EUROPE SAYS · Published 6 Sep 2026
Fed minutes July 2026: Officials saw need for rate hike if inflation doesn't cool
In coverage record: 7 Sep 2026
“Following the recent run of inflation data, market pricing switched to an expectation for the Fed to stay on hold likely until December before it hikes again. Previously, traders had been expecting a September increase.”
Read article