Bullish for the 10-year Treasury
Fed July Hike Odds Collapse
Stable
Steady attention in US 10-Year Bond coverage, without a clear trend.
Updated 14 October 2026
The bullish argument: Cooling inflation data reduces the probability of a near-term Fed rate hike, making a July increase unlikely
How attention has changed
0% of US 10-Year Bond coverage
Rolling 3-day share · as of 14 Oct 2026
This measures attention in published coverage, not the likelihood of a price move.
| Date | Share of coverage |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 0% |
| 2026-09-16 | 0% |
| 2026-09-17 | 0.3% |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-19 | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-20 | 0% |
| 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| 2026-09-22 | 0% |
| 2026-09-23 | 0% |
| 2026-09-24 | 0% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0% |
| 2026-09-26 | 0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 0% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.4% |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.3% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.4% |
| 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| 2026-10-07 | 0% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0.5% |
| 2026-10-09 | 0.3% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0.3% |
| 2026-10-11 | 0% |
| 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| 2026-10-13 | 0% |
| 2026-10-14 | 0% |
Keep up with the bigger picture
Personalized briefs are coming. Join the waitlist to follow this story and the other narratives shaping US 10-Year Bond coverage.
The argument and its evidence
Several outlets can carry the same argument; no single article is its origin. Read each one in its own context.
Recent coverage
-
Kiplinger · Published 7 Oct 2026
Stocks Fall as Treasury Yields Hit New Highs: Stock Market Today
In coverage record: 8 Oct 2026
“The odds for an October rate hike have dropped over the past month thanks to encouraging inflation data and a weak September jobs report.”
Read article
Earlier coverage
-
MarketScreener · Published 1 Oct 2026
Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate hike forecast to December
In coverage record: 2 Oct 2026
“Data on Wednesday showed US inflation rose less than expected in August.”
Read article -
Seeking Alpha · Published 27 Sep 2026
Time To Load Up Before Q4 Hits Home
In coverage record: 28 Sep 2026
“Inflation expectations are contained, with the 5-year break-even rate at 2.34%, suggesting the market is not overly concerned about further Fed rate hikes.”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 16 Sep 2026
Energy Surge Pressures Bank of England on Rate Decisions
In coverage record: 17 Sep 2026
“their reluctance influenced by the cooling labor market and elevated market interest rates”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 11 Sep 2026
Global Bond Market Breathers Amid U.S. Inflation Insights
In coverage record: 12 Sep 2026
“The global bond market experienced a brief respite following a U.S. inflation report that aligned with economist predictions, alleviating fears of imminent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.”
Read article -
The Globe and Mail · Published 4 Sep 2026
Wall Street’s week ahead: Investors to pore over inflation data for signals on rate trajectory
In coverage record: 5 Sep 2026
“With the upcoming CPI, "what really matters is whether that print really confirms the cooling that we saw in June and July," said Garrett Melson. Fed Governor Christopher Waller that he is inclined to argue in favor of keeping interest rates steady if upcoming data confirms inflation pressures are cooling.”
Read article -
WTOP · Published 4 Sep 2026
Asian benchmarks mostly rise after tech stocks lead rally on Wall Street
In coverage record: 5 Sep 2026
“Waller said that, if new data next week shows inflation is cooling, he 'would be inclined' to keep the Fed's benchmark interest rate unchanged.”
Read article -
CNBC TV18 · Published 4 Sep 2026
Fed rate decision still hangs on inflation after jobs report
In coverage record: 5 Sep 2026
“Cooler reports are likely to keep the Fed on hold, as it's been through five previous meetings this year. As strong as today's data was, I don't think anyone will be triggered to tighten on today's data alone. Next week's inflation report will be determinative.”
Read article -
Portfolio Adviser · Published 25 Aug 2026
Schroders: We have no problem with reduced Fed forward guidance
In coverage record: 26 Aug 2026
“Although the case for a September hike remains strong, sequentially softer inflation data lessens the likelihood of it being delivered. For that reason, we have increased our scenario probability of 'just right' to 60%, which now becomes our base case, and have reduced the probability of our most hawkish 'too hot' scenario.”
Read article -
CoinGape · Published 17 Aug 2026
BMNR Stock Outlook as Bitmine Repurchases 1.7M Shares as ETH Holdings Top 5.82M
In coverage record: 18 Aug 2026
“Goldman Sachs has warned investors against betting on the Fed hiking rates next month after the CPI data showed cooling inflation. The recent US jobless claims also showed that the labor market is becoming weak, which could also prompt the Fed to trim rates.”
Read article -
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution · Published 14 Aug 2026
US markets strive for a positive week ahead of retail sales data and signs of cooling inflation
In coverage record: 15 Aug 2026
“The U.S. stock market hit all-time highs Thursday on new data that showed inflation cooled in July, as well as a decline in oil prices.”
Read article -
Reuters · Published 14 Aug 2026
Cooler inflation data may force Warsh's divided Fed to hold the line on rates
In coverage record: 15 Aug 2026
“The more the headlines are 'inflation coming down,' I think that keeps expectations in check... Barkin said the tendency by financial markets and the public to focus on a recent slowdown in price pressures could ease the need to raise rates despite inflation having remained above the Fed's target.”
Read article -
The Star · Published 13 Aug 2026
S&P 500 hits record as rate fears ease
In coverage record: 14 Aug 2026
“Fresh data showed US producer prices were unchanged in July as goods prices fell and the cost of services increased marginally, while the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, pointing to a stable jobs market. Traders are pricing in a 63% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next month”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 13 Aug 2026
Stock Surge: Oil Price Dip and Bullish Earnings Bolster Markets
In coverage record: 14 Aug 2026
“producer price data reported a 4.7% gain, undercutting the expected 4.9% rise in July”
Read article -
The Economic Times · Published 13 Aug 2026
Indian bonds mirror gains in Treasuries as oil slips
In coverage record: 14 Aug 2026
“U.S. retail inflation rose 0.1% in July after declining in June, while annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%. The data lowered the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike to 36%, according to CME FedWatch.”
Read article -
Barchart · Published 12 Aug 2026
Stocks Trading Higher on Favorable CPI Report and Positive AI News
In coverage record: 13 Aug 2026
“Stocks also received a lift from today's favorable CPI report, which supported T-note prices and reduced the odds of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting to 39% from 51% on Tuesday. T-note prices received a boost today from the favorable CPI report, with the core CPI easing to match a 5.5-year low.”
Read article -
CNBC · Published 12 Aug 2026
Here are five key takeaways from the July CPI inflation report
In coverage record: 13 Aug 2026
“Both numbers helped feed a narrative that while inflation is still a problem, it seems less so after two consecutive months of benign readings.”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 12 Aug 2026
Tech Rally Boosts Markets Amid Steady Inflation Outlook
In coverage record: 13 Aug 2026
“The optimistic financial landscape was further reinforced by mild inflation data, reducing speculation of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Gasoline prices saw a decline for the second month in a row, contributing to the subdued rise in consumer prices.”
Read article -
ZeroHedge · Published 12 Aug 2026
'All Greed-No Fear' With Bonds & Stocks Bid On Cooling CPI, But Biggest-Tech & Bitcoin Keep Sliding
In coverage record: 13 Aug 2026
“Rate-hike odds and bond yields fell today (cooling CPI)”
Read article -
Fortune · Published 12 Aug 2026
Inflation came in perfectly on forecast. Almost everything underneath it is a ‘mess’
In coverage record: 13 Aug 2026
“"In-line inflation will keep the 'no need to hike rates' narrative that took hold after last week's jobs report intact," said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.”
Read article -
The Economic Times · Published 6 Aug 2026
Global Market Today: Asian stocks drop as AI rally pauses, oil dips
In coverage record: 7 Aug 2026
“If Friday's monthly payrolls report confirms signs of a cooling labor market, it may give Federal Reserve officials room to keep their focus on stubborn inflation, rather than employment.”
Read article -
International Business Times · Published 6 Aug 2026
Fed Governor Cook Voted Against Hiking Rates. She Clarified She's Ready To Act If Inflation Remains Above Target.
In coverage record: 7 Aug 2026
“Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack said the Fed needs to 'act to speed the return of PCE inflation to our 2 percent objective' and noted that 'The longer that high inflation persists, the more challenging and costly it can be to bring it back down.'”
Read article -
The Economic Times · Published 5 Aug 2026
Treasuries rise as falling oil eases pressure on Fed
In coverage record: 6 Aug 2026
“Lower oil prices reduced inflation expectations and Fed rate hike forecasts. Treasury yields have tracked oil prices to varying degrees since the US attacked Iran in late February, helping push up inflation and bolstering the case for tighter US monetary policy.”
Read article -
Spokane Spokesman-Review · Published 5 Aug 2026
Fed’s Cook Says Ready to Raise Rates If Inflation Doesn’t Cool
In coverage record: 6 Aug 2026
“"If I do not see signs of continued disinflation soon, I am prepared to act," Cook said Wednesday in a speech at an event in Alaska. "With five years of above-target inflation, the risk grows that higher inflation may become entrenched in price- and wage-setting behavior, leading to persistence that would be much harder for us to attack."”
Read article -
Reuters · Published 5 Aug 2026
Fed's Cook says ready to raise rates if inflation doesn't start easing
In coverage record: 6 Aug 2026
“If inflation doesn't start to cool off 'I am prepared to act by raising rates, if necessary,' Cook said in the text of a speech prepared for delivery before the 2026 Economic Luncheon of the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation in Anchorage, Alaska.”
Read article -
SFGATE · Published 1 Aug 2026
Trump wanted interest rate cuts to be 'Rocket Fuel' for the economy. He is losing that fight so far
In coverage record: 2 Aug 2026
“The next Fed meeting on rates will conclude on Sept. 16. Markets currently expect Fed officials to vote to raise rates in order to reduce inflationary pressures, according to CME FedWatch.”
Read article -
EUROPE SAYS · Published 1 Aug 2026
US Fed dissenters call for rate hikes over sustained inflation
In coverage record: 2 Aug 2026
“"Inflation has been too high for too long," said one of the dissenters, president of the regional Cleveland Fed, Beth Hammack. "The longer that high inflation persists, the more challenging and costly it can be to bring it back down."”
Read article -
Benzinga · Published 30 Jul 2026
Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Futures Gain as Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates-Meta, Micros
In coverage record: 31 Jul 2026
“The CME Group's FedWatch tool's projections show markets pricing a 65.2% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking the current interest rates during its September meeting.”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 30 Jul 2026
Yen's Surge: Japan's Potential Intervention Amidst Dollar's Decline
In coverage record: 31 Jul 2026
“Recently published data indicating a slowdown in US inflation for June. Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, the hope for an upward adjustment evaporated.”
Read article -
Baltimore Sun · Published 28 Jul 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to combat inflation
In coverage record: 29 Jul 2026
“Other economists say inflation won't be defeated without action by the Fed. 'There has never been a time when inflation gradually moderated without impetus from the Fed,' Joseph Lavorgna, a former top economist at the Treasury Department and chief economist at SMBC Americas, said.”
Read article -
The Financial Express · Published 28 Jul 2026
Fed preview: What to expect from Kevin Warsh on rates and inflation
In coverage record: 29 Jul 2026
“The recent decline in core inflation suggests price pressures could continue easing in the coming months... He believes the Fed's next move will likely be a rate cut rather than a hike.”
Read article -
Financial Post · Published 27 Jul 2026
Citadel Securities Sees Warsh Delivering Surprise Fed Rate Hike
In coverage record: 28 Jul 2026
“Flight argued those reports should not outweigh broader evidence that inflation risks remain elevated and the labor market is stable. The energy price increases in recent weeks may tip the balance toward a hike.”
Read article -
Cable News Network · Published 27 Jul 2026
The Fed confronts an unusually confusing economic moment
In coverage record: 28 Jul 2026
“Inflation slowed sharply in June, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, largely due to lower energy prices that month. Investors took that as a sign that the Fed might feel less compelled to hike interest rates to combat price pressures for the first time since July 2023.”
Read article -
EUROPE SAYS · Published 26 Jul 2026
FOMC Preview: Fed likely to hold rates despite oil spike, Citi sees dovish outcome
In coverage record: 27 Jul 2026
“softer-than-expected June core inflation and slowing payroll growth make it difficult to justify tightening policy after officials opted not to raise rates in June.”
Read article -
Malay Mail · Published 26 Jul 2026
US Fed tipped to hold rates as inflation, Iran war cloud outlook
In coverage record: 27 Jul 2026
“The Fed 'has to be ready to tighten monetary policy to prevent a repeat of the 2021-to-2022 inflation episode,' Fed Governor Chris Waller said last week. Inflation has been under pressure not just from rising fuel prices due to the war, but also due to heightened demand from the AI boom and the continued effect of Trump's tariffs rippling through the economy.”
Read article -
USA TODAY · Published 24 Jul 2026
Fed chair 'an enigma:' Why July interest rate move is hard to predict
In coverage record: 25 Jul 2026
“June's deceleration to 3.5% and a weaker jobs report gave some reason to pause. While a 9.7% drop in gas prices drove the headline inflation number lower, 'core' inflation – excluding volatile food and energy prices – also fell in June.”
Read article -
scanx.trade · Published 23 Jul 2026
Dow Jones Slides 602.85 Points, or 1.15 Percent, to 51,615.73 at Market Open
In coverage record: 24 Jul 2026
“Headline producer prices dropped 0.3% in June, versus expectations for no change. The annual rate cooled to 5.5% from 6.2%, while core PPI rose a smaller-than-expected 0.2%. This print echoed Tuesday's soft CPI report and further trimmed the risk that the Federal Reserve raises rates at its upcoming meeting.”
Read article -
The Economic Times · Published 18 Jul 2026
Wall Street Week Ahead: Alphabet, Intel results in focus for AI trade as US earnings rev up
In coverage record: 19 Jul 2026
“Pricing in fed funds futures indicates expectations the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates in the coming months to bring down inflation that is above the Fed's 2% annual target. Cooler-than-expected data this week on U.S. consumer and producer prices calmed some fears the Fed could raise rates at this month's meeting.”
Read article -
The Economic Times · Published 18 Jul 2026
Longer-dated yields lower after data, on track for weekly decline
In coverage record: 19 Jul 2026
“Markets have largely priced out any chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting later this month. Money markets are now pricing in only a 14.4% chance for a hike in July, according to CME FedWatch, down from slightly more than 40% on Monday.”
Read article -
The New York Times · Published 17 Jul 2026
Cooler Inflation May Not Be Enough to Stave Off Fed Rate Increases
In coverage record: 18 Jul 2026
“However, it has not eliminated the possibility down the road, keeping Mr. Warsh, who has staked his reputation on bringing inflation down, under pressure to prove his commitment to fulfilling that goal.”
Read article -
Spokane Spokesman-Review · Published 17 Jul 2026
Fed rate-hike voices swell before July decision, rates still seen on hold
In coverage record: 18 Jul 2026
“Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson told a Stanford University audience that if inflation 'does not start to cool down soon, I believe that it could be appropriate to reconsider our current policy stance.'”
Read article -
CNBC · Published 16 Jul 2026
Treasury yields rise as Wall Street awaits key employment data
In coverage record: 17 Jul 2026
“The odds of Fed rate hikes should continue to recede as inflation at the factory level is trending lower, and producers will not be passing on their higher costs to the consumer level as much as we previously thought.”
Read article -
The Star · Published 16 Jul 2026
Fed may need to hike rates if inflation does not ease soon, Jefferson says
In coverage record: 17 Jul 2026
“Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Thursday suggested he would be open to raising interest rates if there is no near-term improvement in inflation. In a scenario where actual inflation does not start to cool down soon, I believe that it could be appropriate to reconsider our current policy stance to ensure we fulfill our commitment to deliver price stability.”
Read article -
International Business Times · Published 16 Jul 2026
Inflation Fell More Than Expected In June, But a Fed Member Said Interest Rates Should Be 'Modestly' Higher
In coverage record: 17 Jul 2026
“Financial markets sharply reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month after new government data showed inflation eased more than economists anticipated in June. According to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% over the past 12 months through June, slowing from the 4.2% annual increase recorded in May.”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 15 Jul 2026
Wall Street Climbs: Earnings and Inflation Sparks Optimism
In coverage record: 16 Jul 2026
“The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3% in June, countering inflationary pressures and reducing expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.”
Read article -
Benzinga · Published 15 Jul 2026
Memory-Chip Rout Sinks Nasdaq 100, SanDisk Plunges 14%
In coverage record: 16 Jul 2026
“Headline producer prices dropped 0.3% in June versus expectations for no change, with the annual rate cooling to 5.5% from 6.2%... Treasury yields drifted lower after the PPI data. The 10-year yield fell about 3 basis points to 4.56%”
Read article -
Livemint · Published 15 Jul 2026
Inflation, Warsh, and war stoke treasury yields, putting bond markets on edge
In coverage record: 16 Jul 2026
“The CME Group's FedWatch tool suggests the odds of a hike at the central bank's next policy meeting, ending on July 29, have risen to around 42%, up from just 8% a month ago. Rate hikes could come in 'in the near term,' if inflation pressures don't start moving toward the Fed's 2% target.”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 15 Jul 2026
U.S. Producer Prices Decline Amid Energy Cost Pullback
In coverage record: 16 Jul 2026
“U.S. producer prices posted an unexpected decline in June, their biggest drop in 14 months, as energy costs fell, offering fresh evidence of subsiding inflation before the recent escalation in the Middle East conflict. The decrease effectively ruled out an immediate interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.”
Read article -
Benzinga · Published 15 Jul 2026
PPI Drops By 0.3% In June, Backing The Case For A Fed On Hold
In coverage record: 16 Jul 2026
“The cooling-than-expected print lands a day after June consumer inflation fell 0.4% month over month, the biggest monthly decline since April 2020, dragging annual CPI down to 3.5% from 4.2% as energy prices dropped 5.7%.”
Read article -
Reuters · Published 14 Jul 2026
Traders expect Fed to skip July rate hike as inflation cools
In coverage record: 15 Jul 2026
“Traders now see only about a 10% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate increase at the Fed's July 28-29 meeting, versus 35% before the report, based on Fed funds futures prices as traded at the CME Group.”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 14 Jul 2026
Bank Boost and Cooler Inflation Stir Market Optimism
In coverage record: 15 Jul 2026
“The Labor Department revealed that the Consumer Price Index cooled beyond analyst expectations in June. This was largely attributed to easing energy prices following signs of progress in peace efforts with Iran, calming some concerns about inflationary pressures.”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 14 Jul 2026
Inflation Eases Market Fears: Fed Rate Hikes Unlikely Amid Optimistic Earnings
In coverage record: 15 Jul 2026
“Inflation, measured by the consumer price index, increased by 3.5% in June, undershooting the forecast of 3.8%. This prompted traders to lower their expectations of near-term rate hikes, with the likelihood of a quarter-point increase at the next Fed meeting dropping to 15%.”
Read article