Fed Rate Cut Delay Expectations
Investors are adjusting their expectations for Fed rate cuts further out into the calendar.
Too little corroboration in the last 3 days to call a trend (15 articles). Watching for it to gain traction.
Mainstream financial press is carrying this — attention has broadened beyond specialist outlets.
"Traders further lowered the odds for a September rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Market expectations have switched in recent days, with traders now pricing in a rate hike in October or December after putting heavy odds that the Federal Open Market Committee would move at its next meeting on Sept. 15-16."
"If the Fed trims rates, it could lead to investors exiting their treasury yields for risk assets such as XRP, with this driving gains in price."
"In the United States, investors have also sharply reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets now expecting two rate hikes by June next year, including an almost fully priced increase in October."
"After starting the year pricing in two to three rate cuts, markets have swung dramatically in the other direction. U.S. rate futures on Monday priced in a 36 per cent chance of a hike this week, according to the CME's FedWatch, up from 16 per cent a week earlier, while showing 43 basis points of increases by the end of 2026."
"The market has become more convinced of rate hikes and you're seeing that in the options market in terms of more demand for payers over receivers."
"The probability of a rate hike at Wednesday's meeting has been rising, according to the CME Group's FedWatch, which uses 30-day Fed funds futures prices to predict rate cut decisions. The tool now shows a 38% likelihood the central bank will hike its benchmark rate next week, up from 12% a week earlier."
"The news on inflation has led investors to dial back their bets that the Fed will raise the policy rate later this year."
"Traders now see an 82% chance that the Fed and its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, will not raise the federal funds rate at its next meeting later this month. That's up from the 71% chance seen a day earlier."
"T-notes retreated today on the stronger-than-expected increase in US May nonfarm payrolls and the sharp upside revision to April nonfarm payrolls, bolstering speculation that the next move by the Fed will be an interest rate increase."
"Global bond markets also faced pressure, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to a five-week high during the month. This followed the US Federal Reserve’s most divided rate decision since 1992, which dampened expectations of near-term rate cuts as rising energy prices heightened inflation concerns."