Bullish for the S&P 500
Fed Rate Hike Odds Falling
Stable
Steady attention in S&P 500 coverage, without a clear trend.
Updated 14 October 2026
The bullish argument: Disinflation progress and declining odds of additional rate hikes, with Fed rate hike probabilities at 19.4% for upcoming meetings, are expected to support equity valuations by reducing the discount rate applied to future earnings. Lower rate expectations improve the relative attractiveness of equities versus fixed income alternatives.
How attention has changed
0% of S&P 500 coverage
Rolling 3-day share · as of 14 Oct 2026
This measures attention in published coverage, not the likelihood of a price move.
| Date | Share of coverage |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 0% |
| 2026-09-16 | 0% |
| 2026-09-17 | 0% |
| 2026-09-18 | 0% |
| 2026-09-19 | 0% |
| 2026-09-20 | 0% |
| 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| 2026-09-22 | 0% |
| 2026-09-23 | 0% |
| 2026-09-24 | 0% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0% |
| 2026-09-26 | 0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 0% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0% |
| 2026-10-01 | 0.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.4% |
| 2026-10-03 | 1% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.8% |
| 2026-10-05 | 1.2% |
| 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| 2026-10-07 | 0% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0% |
| 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0% |
| 2026-10-11 | 0% |
| 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| 2026-10-13 | 0% |
| 2026-10-14 | 0% |
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The argument and its evidence
Several outlets can carry the same argument; no single article is its origin. Read each one in its own context.
Recent coverage
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Markets Insider · Published 9 Oct 2026
Dow Jones Today: DJIA Climbs after Trump Delays Potential Iran Strikes; Rate Hike Odds Remain Low
In coverage record: 10 Oct 2026
“the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the October 28 Fed meeting remain low at 19.4%”
Read article
Earlier coverage
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Markets Insider · Published 2 Oct 2026
Dow Jones Today: DJIA Advances as Jobs Report Miss Sends Rate Hike Odds Lower
In coverage record: 3 Oct 2026
“Steady rates are generally viewed as more accretive to stocks than higher rates. Lower, rather than higher, rates allow companies to borrow capital more easily and can encourage hiring. In addition, lower rates increase the present value of discounted future cash flows.”
Read article -
Devdiscourse · Published 2 Oct 2026
US STOCKS-Wall St futures rise ahead of jobs report as bond market steadies, oil slips
In coverage record: 3 Oct 2026
“Traders see a 76% chance of Fed rates staying unchanged in October, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed, up from around 29% a week ago”
Read article -
MarketScreener · Published 30 Sep 2026
Wall St climbs as cooling inflation tempers Fed rate-hike concerns
In coverage record: 1 Oct 2026
“Traders now see a roughly 35% chance of an October rate hike, down from about a 45% chance seen before the data”
Read article -
Barchart · Published 2 Sep 2026
Stocks Push Higher as Crude Oil and Bond Yields Stabilize
In coverage record: 3 Sep 2026
“Gains in stocks accelerated on dovish comments for New York Fed President Williams, who said inflation is continuing to trend down.”
Read article -
Barchart · Published 28 Aug 2026
Stocks Rally as Fed Chair Warsh Vows to Tackle Inflation
In coverage record: 29 Aug 2026
“Stocks found support today on comments from Fed Chair Warsh, who said he's impressed by the economy, which appears to have strengthened, and vowed to get inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target.”
Read article -
Barchart · Published 12 Aug 2026
Stocks Close Higher on Favorable CPI Report and Positive AI News
In coverage record: 13 Aug 2026
“Stocks closed higher on Wednesday due to strength in AI and chip stocks after CoreWeave and Super Micro reported better-than-expected earnings. Stocks also received a lift from Wednesday's favorable CPI report, which supported T-note prices and reduced the odds of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting to 40% from 51% on Tuesday.”
Read article