Bullish for oil
Geopolitical Oil Supply Risk Premium
Emerging
Gaining attention from a low base in Crude Oil coverage.
Updated 13 October 2026
The bullish argument: Goldman Sachs and other analysts estimate that a geopolitical risk premium of just over $20 per barrel is currently embedded in Brent prices, with December forecasts raised to $90 and scenarios suggesting Brent could average $125 in 2027 if Gulf production remains significantly below pre-conflict levels.
What changed?
Not in yesterday’s coverage · 1.9% of Crude Oil coverage today
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The argument and its evidence
Several outlets can carry the same argument; no single article is its origin. Read each one in its own context.
Recent coverage
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NDTV Profit · Published 12 Oct 2026
$4 Spike From Day's Lows: Brent Tops $106/Barrel As Russia-Ukraine 'Energy Truce' Comes Under Cloud
In coverage record: 13 Oct 2026
“Goldman Sachs, in a note, raised its Brent price forecast for December to $90 a barrel from $85, estimating a risk premium of just over $20 a barrel.”
Read article -
Firstpost · Published 12 Oct 2026
Brent crude at $60 or $125 in 2027? Goldman Sachs flags Gulf oil supply as key trigger
In coverage record: 13 Oct 2026
“Goldman Sachs estimates that the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices remains slightly above $20 per barrel”
Read article -
Business Standard · Published 12 Oct 2026
Goldman ups Dec'26 oil forecast to $90/bbl; 2027 worst-case pegged at $125
In coverage record: 13 Oct 2026
“downside risks to supply likely slow the moderation in the time spreads risk premium—which we estimate at just over $20 today”
Read article -
Free Press Journal · Published 12 Oct 2026
Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast To $90 For December
In coverage record: 13 Oct 2026
“The bank estimates that the current risk premium in oil markets exceeds $20 per barrel”
Read article -
OilPrice · Published 12 Oct 2026
Oil Prices Jump 2% on Saudi Attacks as OPEC Sees Demand Rebound
In coverage record: 13 Oct 2026
“Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, estimating that geopolitical risks are currently adding just over $20 per barrel to oil prices.”
Read article -
CNBC TV18 · Published 12 Oct 2026
Brent crude crosses $107 per barrel: What’s driving oil prices higher
In coverage record: 13 Oct 2026
“Brent could average around $125 a barrel in 2027 under a more severe scenario in which Gulf oil production remains 5 million barrels per day below February 2026 levels.”
Read article