If the Fed weights trimmed-mean PCE at 2.2% and sticky-price inflation at 2.8% as the primary inflation signal, it will hold rates steady, ease real yields, weaken dollar support, and enable Bitcoin to rally toward $66,000-$68,000.

"The path through trimmed inflation: The bullish path requires Warsh to classify energy and other volatile categories as noise, giving greater weight to trimmed-mean PCE at 2.2%, sticky-price inflation at 2.8%, and 10-year expected inflation near 2.43%. Lower hike odds would ease real yields and weaken the dollar's support, reopening liquidity for Bitcoin. BTC would first need to recover $64,500, then clear the Friday high near $65,300. A clean move through that area would reopen $66,000 and $68,000."