Blackwell GPU revenue will experience a sharp cliff next year, declining 71% after reaching $135.7 billion this year
Too little corroboration in the last 3 days to call a trend (1 article). Watching for it to gain traction.
A bearish thesis projects that Blackwell GPU revenue will experience a severe cliff, declining 71% from an expected $135.7 billion this year to significantly lower levels next year. This dramatic revenue drop would represent a major deceleration in the product cycle.
Product cycle cliffs matter because they create binary outcomes for growth-dependent valuations; if a major product line faces demand exhaustion or replacement delays, earnings growth can reverse sharply. This type of structural revenue risk typically warrants significant valuation discounts when credible, as it threatens the multi-year growth narrative supporting current prices.
"Blackwell's revenue is expected to jump from around $86.4 billion last year to $135.7 billion this year but to drop -71% next year."