A large $2.5 billion bullish call spread bet on Bitcoin reaching $70,000 by July 31 faces unfavorable odds and depends on uncertain catalysts like Fed policy and CLARITY Act passage.

"Bitcoin has to climb about 9% in six days for the $70,000 strike to finish in the money, and Deribit's own probabilities put the odds of the price merely touching that level during July at 14.5%...it comes due 48 hours after a central bank meeting nobody can call with confidence."