Geopolitical disruptions driving current refining margins are temporary and could reverse quickly if hostilities de-escalate, causing refiner profits and stock prices to collapse.
Too little corroboration in the last 3 days to call a trend (2 articles). Watching for it to gain traction.
"The biggest risk is that much of the industry's windfall is tied to geopolitical disruptions that could reverse. Hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz have helped send refining margins sharply higher, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further constrained supplies of refined petroleum products. A sustained ceasefire or other significant de-escalation could quickly change that equation."
"The futures market is already pricing in considerably lower refining margins farther out. The September Nymex 3-2-1 spread was around $69.92, up from less than $20 in early January, while the August 2027 spread stood at $44.38, more than 35% below the September level."