Archived · 25 September 2026

Equities · SPX

S&P 500

See how coverage of the S&P 500 is changing—and the bullish and bearish arguments behind it.

Updated 25 September 2026

Coverage: 18–24 September 2026

Sentiment over time

History shown

48% bullish — 48% of the articles that took a side on S&P 500 argued S&P 500 higher, articles published 18–24 September.

Of articles taking a side · published 18–24 September

As of 25 September 2026

0–100% bullish · 19 Sep — 25 Sep 2026. From 33% on 19 Sep to 48% on 25 Sep; low 33% on 19 Sep, high 65% on 23 Sep.

S&P 500 narrative sentiment, the 7 days to 25 Sep 2026: the share of articles taking a side that were bullish, each day a 7-day reading. Days without a reading are not listed.
Date	Bullish share (%)
2026-09-19	33
2026-09-20	33
2026-09-21	33
2026-09-22	49
2026-09-23	65
2026-09-24	61
2026-09-25	48

0–100% bullish · 27 Aug — 25 Sep 2026. From 34% on 27 Aug to 48% on 25 Sep; low 16% on 11 Sep, high 65% on 23 Sep.

S&P 500 narrative sentiment, the 30 days to 25 Sep 2026: the share of articles taking a side that were bullish, each day a 7-day reading. Days without a reading are not listed.
Date	Bullish share (%)
2026-08-27	34
2026-08-28	50
2026-08-29	50
2026-08-30	51
2026-08-31	50
2026-09-01	49
2026-09-02	39
2026-09-03	43
2026-09-04	33
2026-09-05	33
2026-09-06	34
2026-09-07	34
2026-09-08	45
2026-09-09	52
2026-09-10	39
2026-09-11	16
2026-09-12	29
2026-09-13	29
2026-09-14	30
2026-09-15	24
2026-09-16	18
2026-09-17	23
2026-09-18	39
2026-09-19	33
2026-09-20	33
2026-09-21	33
2026-09-22	49
2026-09-23	65
2026-09-24	61
2026-09-25	48

How this is measured

Each point measures the previous seven days of directional articles. It describes coverage, not the probability of a rise in the S&P 500’s price.Articles published from 18 to 24 September, scored the following mornings.

What mattered · 25 September 2026

Investors are growing more nervous about rising interest rates again, and a brief burst of optimism earlier this week has already faded away.

What changed

Wall Street Spillover to Asia now leads the bullish case — was 4th

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The bullish and bearish cases

↗ Bullish case · Summary unavailable

No case summary was saved for this edition

The bullish narratives below show what this side of the coverage argues.

↘ Bearish case · Summary unavailable

No case summary was saved for this edition

The bearish narratives below show what this side of the coverage argues.

How the S&P 500’s narratives are evolving

Start with the highlights, or explore a stage of the narrative lifecycle.

Featured

6 featured narratives · Selected highlights across the lifecycle

Accelerating attention
Wall Street Spillover to Asia
Share of coverage
1.8%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Wall Street strength is driving positive momentum in Asian equity markets
Read the narrative — Wall Street Spillover to Asia
Steady attention
Rising Bond Yields Pressure Stocks
Share of coverage
21.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Rising bond yields are currently pressuring the stock market.
Read the narrative — Rising Bond Yields Pressure Stocks
Accelerating attention
10Y Yield 5% Equity Threat
Share of coverage
4.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
A break above 5% in the 10-year Treasury yield represents an obvious trigger point that would shake equity valuations and trigger near-term stock market risk.
Read the narrative — 10Y Yield 5% Equity Threat
Emerging attention
AI Revenue Model Uncertainty
Share of coverage
3.2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
AI monetization remains uncertain and may not provide meaningful revenue tailwinds to consumer tech products and services
Read the narrative — AI Revenue Model Uncertainty
Steady attention
Fed Rate Hikes Compress Valuations
Share of coverage
3.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Higher cost of capital from Fed rate hikes, combined with rising fuel costs and AI adoption concerns, will pressure equity valuations lower.
Read the narrative — Fed Rate Hikes Compress Valuations
Accelerating attention
AI Capex Eroding Tech Profitability
Share of coverage
3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Investors are concerned that massive capital expenditures in AI could erode profitability.
Read the narrative — AI Capex Eroding Tech Profitability

Emerging

5 emerging narratives · Gaining attention from a low base

Emerging attention
AI Revenue Model Uncertainty
Share of coverage
3.2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
AI monetization remains uncertain and may not provide meaningful revenue tailwinds to consumer tech products and services
Read the narrative — AI Revenue Model Uncertainty
Emerging attention
Fed Rate Hike Valuation Pressure
Share of coverage
1.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Market expectations for at least one rate increase before year-end will weigh on equity valuations as higher borrowing costs slow economic activity and demand.
Read the narrative — Fed Rate Hike Valuation Pressure
Emerging attention
West Asia Tension Easing Rally
Share of coverage
1.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Reduced geopolitical tension from West Asia uncertainty supports risk-on sentiment and equity gains
Read the narrative — West Asia Tension Easing Rally
Emerging attention
US-China Trade Summit Progress
Share of coverage
0.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Progress in U.S.-China trade talks is boosting U.S. stock futures.
Read the narrative — US-China Trade Summit Progress
Emerging attention
Oil Price Drop Boosts Equities
Share of coverage
0.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Oil price retreat supports broader equity market strength
Read the narrative — Oil Price Drop Boosts Equities

Accelerating

10 accelerating narratives · Already visible and gaining attention

Accelerating attention
10Y Yield 5% Equity Threat
Share of coverage
4.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
A break above 5% in the 10-year Treasury yield represents an obvious trigger point that would shake equity valuations and trigger near-term stock market risk.
Read the narrative — 10Y Yield 5% Equity Threat
Accelerating attention
AI Capex Eroding Tech Profitability
Share of coverage
3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Investors are concerned that massive capital expenditures in AI could erode profitability.
Read the narrative — AI Capex Eroding Tech Profitability
Accelerating attention
Rising Yields Pressure Stock Valuations
Share of coverage
2.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Elevated corporate debt offerings and rising longer-term yields are creating headwinds for economic growth and asset valuations across multiple asset classes.
Read the narrative — Rising Yields Pressure Stock Valuations
Accelerating attention
Wall Street Spillover to Asia
Share of coverage
1.8%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Wall Street strength is driving positive momentum in Asian equity markets
Read the narrative — Wall Street Spillover to Asia
Accelerating attention
Big Tech Driving SPX Records
Share of coverage
1.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The strong performances of major tech stocks are driving the S&P 500 index higher.
Read the narrative — Big Tech Driving SPX Records
Accelerating attention
S&P 500 Bearish Trend Reversal
Share of coverage
1.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The S&P 500 could change its trend from higher to lower, indicating potential bearish sentiment.
Read the narrative — S&P 500 Bearish Trend Reversal
Accelerating attention
SPX-Nasdaq Performance Divergence
Share of coverage
1.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The S&P 500 is struggling to keep pace with the tech-heavy Nasdaq's rally, indicating a divergence in market performance.
Read the narrative — SPX-Nasdaq Performance Divergence
Accelerating attention
Crude Oil Weakness Boosts Stocks
Share of coverage
0.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Crude oil weakness is easing inflation expectations and pushing bond yields lower, supporting stock market gains
Read the narrative — Crude Oil Weakness Boosts Stocks
Accelerating attention
Oil Price Drop Eases Inflation
Share of coverage
0.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The drop in oil prices is easing inflation fears, leading to a rally in Asian and U.S. stock markets.
Read the narrative — Oil Price Drop Eases Inflation
Accelerating attention
S&P 500 Non-GAAP Earnings Inflation
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The use of non-GAAP earnings metrics by analysts may lead to an overestimation of the S&P 500's earnings potential.
Read the narrative — S&P 500 Non-GAAP Earnings Inflation

Fading

6 fading narratives · Losing attention

Fading attention
Fed Rate Hike Oil Pressure
Share of coverage
1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The Fed may face pressure to raise rates in September if inflation remains elevated and crude oil prices continue surging
Read the narrative — Fed Rate Hike Oil Pressure
Fading attention
Oil Prices Squeeze Indian Margins
Share of coverage
0.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Elevated oil prices are a greater threat to Indian equities than global equity volatility due to inflation and margin concerns
Read the narrative — Oil Prices Squeeze Indian Margins
Fading attention
Cool Inflation Data Boosts Equities
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Cool inflation data supports continued strength in equity markets
Read the narrative — Cool Inflation Data Boosts Equities
Fading attention
Fed 2% Inflation Target Rigidity
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The Fed's unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target with no tolerance for soft targets will constrain near-term economic growth and pressure equity valuations
Read the narrative — Fed 2% Inflation Target Rigidity
Fading attention
Geopolitical Oil Price Inflation Pressure
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on stock indexes.
Read the narrative — Geopolitical Oil Price Inflation Pressure
Fading attention
S&P 500 Earnings Growth Optimism
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Expectations of strong future earnings will keep S&P 500 valuations in check.
Read the narrative — S&P 500 Earnings Growth Optimism

Steady

16 steady narratives · Holding a steady share of attention

Steady attention
Rising Bond Yields Pressure Stocks
Share of coverage
21.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Rising bond yields are currently pressuring the stock market.
Read the narrative — Rising Bond Yields Pressure Stocks
Steady attention
Fed Rate Hikes Compress Valuations
Share of coverage
3.3%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Higher cost of capital from Fed rate hikes, combined with rising fuel costs and AI adoption concerns, will pressure equity valuations lower.
Read the narrative — Fed Rate Hikes Compress Valuations
Steady attention
AI Trade Sentiment Deterioration
Share of coverage
1.2%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The market is beginning to doubt the AI trade, leading to increased selling pressure on AI-related stocks.
Read the narrative — AI Trade Sentiment Deterioration
Steady attention
Value Stock Rotation Economic Revival
Share of coverage
1.1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Investors are increasingly favoring lower valuation stocks as the economy revives.
Read the narrative — Value Stock Rotation Economic Revival
Steady attention
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Rally
Share of coverage
1%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Diplomatic efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz are easing market fears, providing support to the S&P 500.
Read the narrative — Strait of Hormuz Reopening Rally
Steady attention
Mortgage Rates Crushing Housing Demand
Share of coverage
0.9%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Elevated mortgage rates are dampening housing demand and home improvement spending, creating a structural headwind for consumer-facing sectors.
Read the narrative — Mortgage Rates Crushing Housing Demand
Steady attention
Treasury Yields Eroding Equity Valuations
Share of coverage
0.9%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
The loss of the 'There Is No Alternative' (TINA) effect due to competitive Treasury yields will reduce equity valuations support.
Read the narrative — Treasury Yields Eroding Equity Valuations
Steady attention
SPX Rally Durability Amid Geopolitical Easing
Share of coverage
0.8%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The current market rally is significant and likely to continue rather than dissipate.
Read the narrative — SPX Rally Durability Amid Geopolitical Easing
Steady attention
Financials Outperforming Tech Stocks
Share of coverage
0.7%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Financial sector stocks including banks, REITs, and insurance remain fundamentally strong and positioned for continued outperformance
Read the narrative — Financials Outperforming Tech Stocks
Steady attention
Bond Yield Sector Rotation Rally
Share of coverage
0.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Higher bond yields provide justification for rotation out of defensives and secular growth.
Read the narrative — Bond Yield Sector Rotation Rally
Steady attention
Fed Rate Hike Risk-Off
Share of coverage
0.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
Risk-off sentiment ahead of Federal Reserve rate hike decision is pressuring equities and crypto assets
Read the narrative — Fed Rate Hike Risk-Off
Steady attention
Treasury Yield Decline Boosting Equities
Share of coverage
0.6%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
The decline in Treasury yields is contributing to a rise in U.S. stock futures.
Read the narrative — Treasury Yield Decline Boosting Equities
Steady attention
Inflation In-Line Supports Equities
Share of coverage
0.5%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
U.S. equity indices are positioned for modest gains as inflation data comes in line with expectations, supporting a stable economic backdrop for equities.
Read the narrative — Inflation In-Line Supports Equities
Steady attention
Hormuz Reopening Oil Price Relief
Share of coverage
0.4%
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Lower crude oil prices resulting from potential Strait of Hormuz reopening will reduce input costs for energy, fertilizer and refined products across the economy
Read the narrative — Hormuz Reopening Oil Price Relief
Steady attention
AI Capex Earnings Bubble Burst
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bearish
In short
AI capex spending growth will not be sufficient to sustain S&P 500 earnings momentum beyond 2024, as the contribution from AI investment begins to fade.
Read the narrative — AI Capex Earnings Bubble Burst
Steady attention
Stocks Outperform Gold Historically
Share of coverage
—
Past 3 days
Sentiment
Bullish
In short
Stock market returns have historically outperformed gold in strong economic conditions, with stocks delivering 10.7% average annual returns versus gold's 7.9% from 1971 to 2024.
Read the narrative — Stocks Outperform Gold Historically

27 more narratives are Quiet (0.5% or less of S&P 500’s coverage over the last seven days) and appear in the full list.

Why Quiet is common: most narratives are not written about in a given week. A narrative needs more than 0.5% of the asset’s coverage over seven days to be anything but Quiet, and at least three articles in a week to be called Emerging, Accelerating or Fading.

All 64 S&P 500 narratives

Sentiment over time

What mattered · 25 September 2026

What changed

Keep up with S&P 500

The bullish and bearish cases

No case summary was saved for this edition

No case summary was saved for this edition

How the S&P 500’s narratives are evolving

Featured

Emerging

Accelerating

Fading

Steady

More on the S&P 500 and the market

Related themes

Related assets

S&P 500 history