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NEUTRAL STABLE US10Y

Fed July Rate Hold Bets

The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain unchanged interest rates at its July meeting, with markets pricing in a 68.5% probability of no rate change.

ARTICLES5
SOURCES3
SHARE0.0%
MOMENTUM 0pp
FIRST SEENJul 29, 2026
LAST SEENAug 1, 2026
TRAJECTORY Quiet

Too little corroboration in the last 3 days to call a trend (5 articles). Watching for it to gain traction.

0.0%7.5%15.0% Jul 29Aug 2Aug 6Aug 10Aug 14Aug 18Aug 22Aug 26
Mainstream 2Niche 1Unclassified 2

Mainstream financial press is carrying this — attention has broadened beyond specialist outlets.

"The week also brought uncertainty in terms of interest rates after the Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold. Chairman Kevin Warsh's commentary and a broadly benign inflation report on Thursday left investors pricing in a 36.8% chance that interest rates could be left unchanged in September, up from about 20% last week."

Devdiscourse general_news Source article

"Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, according to CME FedWatch, down from 82% a week ago but up slightly from 63% on Thursday."

Devdiscourse general_news Source article

"Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, with a potential rate hike in September if inflation remains well above the central bank's 2% target."

The Financial Express unknown Source article

"According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 68.5% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting."

scanx.trade crypto_media Source article

"According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see little chance of a rate increase at this meeting and believe September is a more likely time for any policy change."

The Financial Express unknown Source article