Labor Market Weakness Slows Hikes
Labor market weakness is emerging as evidenced by weak private payroll growth, suggesting unemployment could rise and reduce pressure for Fed rate hikes.
Too little corroboration in the last 3 days to call a trend (4 articles). Watching for it to gain traction.
Mainstream financial press is carrying this — attention has broadened beyond specialist outlets.
"Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, and the revisions were worse than the headline. May and June were marked down by a combined 103,000 jobs, which means the trend rate of hiring for the last three months is roughly zero. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, but that stability owes something to a shrinking labor force rather than to strong demand for workers."
"investors should be wary of the future growth potential of an economy where fewer people are working... the participation rate edged down to 61.4%, now off 0.7 percentage point this year alone due to the exodus of nearly 1.4 million people."
"American employers shed 23,000 jobs last month, on top of revisions that lowered job gains over the previous two months by over 100,000 jobs. Labor economist Aaron Sojourner said both job growth and private sector wage growth are 'decelerating.'"
"ADP reported Wednesday that private companies added 44,000 jobs in July, missing the consensus estimate on Wall Street for 75,000. Economists at Vanguard also anticipate the unemployment rate may have inched up to 4.3% in July."