Weak Jobs Data Fed Pause
Weak July jobs data and downward payroll revisions reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September, supporting lower Treasury yields.
Too little corroboration in the last 3 days to call a trend (13 articles). Watching for it to gain traction.
Mainstream financial press is carrying this — attention has broadened beyond specialist outlets.
"It was all in-line with consensus but that still makes it two consecutive relatively encouraging core inflation reports and, when combined with last week's weaker employment data, leaves less pressure on the Fed to act immediately in September."
"A strong number could bring a September rate hike into full view, easing upward pressure at the longer end of the bond market."
"The data could reduce pressure on Fed officials to raise borrowing costs at their September 15-16 meeting, particularly as the impact of the energy-price shock linked to the Iran war appears to be fading."
"Traders took that benign core number, added it to last Friday's weak nonfarm payrolls report for July, and came up with an equation that substantially lowered the odds for a rate hike at the Fed's Sept. 15-16 policy meeting."
"Experts said the July CPI data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at its next meeting in September. At the same time, a rate hike isn't entirely off the table, especially if inflation moves higher later in the year."
"A strong number could bring a September rate hike into full view, easing upward pressure at the longer end of the bond market."
"Data on Friday that showed U.S. employers unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July prompted traders to cut odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in September. Traders now price in a 52% chance of a rate hike in September."
"The recovery was aided by weaker-than-expected US jobs data, which eased concerns over a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, a development seen as broadly positive for emerging markets such as India."
"Data on Aug 7 that showed US employers unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July prompted traders to cut odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in September. Traders now price in a 52 per cent chance of a rate hike in September."
"The dollar fell against major currencies on Friday after U.S. employment unexpectedly declined in July, fueling concerns about the economy's strength and undermining the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Markets now put a 56% chance that the Fed will holding rates steady in September, up from 45% a day earlier."