If a Cardano ETF launches in October and attracts over $200 million in its first 90 days, it would validate that institutional demand exists and invalidate the bearish thesis about altcoin ETF viability.

"The thesis would be invalidated if an ADA ETF launches in October and attracts more than $200 million in its first 90 days. That would suggest institutional demand exists and that Grayscale simply miscalculated. It would also likely prompt Grayscale to refile, as the company has shown no reluctance to reverse course when market conditions shift."