Public Treasury Bitcoin Accumulation Cycle

"The firm sees this cycle as structurally different from 2022: There are now spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional flows have grown, and the regulatory environment has matured in ways that didn't exist four years ago."

"21Shares has walked back its prediction that Bitcoin's four-year cycle had broken, now projecting a year-end recovery to $100,000 instead. Price has not broken below the $54,000 aggregate cost basis, the line that historically marked full capitulation in past downturns."

"He then dismissed the recent selloff as "forced" and not a reflection of "broken fundamentals." Scaramucci had earlier described Bitcoin's ongoing trajectory as a "self-fulfilling prophecy," in which traders, expecting a four-year cycle, begin selling and thereby make that outcome a reality."

"This puts a potential bottom as early as October 2026. Additionally, CoinMarketCap noted that Strategy now holds 818,869 BTC while spot ETFs hold over $107 billion."

"Therefore, Loukas says this cycle looks more like base building than a typical upward move, and the market may be witnessing the formation of a long-term cyclical bottom that could extend throughout 2026."

"Prominent Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger has predicted that the flagship cryptocurrency will break its all-time highs again this year. The predicted ATH will disprove the theory that Bitcoin's price strictly adheres to a four-year halving cycle."

"We believe cycle theory is a relic of the past, and the cycles themselves probably never existed. The fact is that Bitcoin is boring and growing gradually now."

"According to Bitwise analysts Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen, Bitcoin may be on the cusp of breaking free from its long-standing four-year rhythm altogether."

"He notes broader cycle considerations, maintaining that Bitcoin's cycle is likely to extend into Q4 2025, historically when major Bitcoin tops occur."

"“The four-year cycle is effectively broken with the maturation of bitcoin as a strategic asset.”"